Every engagement starts the same way: with the right questions, asked by the right people.
Situation Forecast
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Run your scenario
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See which way the decision is likely to go
The decision
What is being decided
Decision expected in16 weeks
Where it stands today
Opposition
Who decides
Environment
Your intelligence
What your read is based on
How often it is reviewed
Likelihood it goes your way
40%
if decided on schedule, current course
With a Situation Room
51%
+11 points
Confidence
±15
Moderate confidence — points either way at decision
Likelihood of a favourable decision over 16 weeks
Current course: 40% (wide band = what you cannot see yet)
With monitoring and response: 51%
Shaded areas show uncertainty. Better intelligence narrows the band, so decisions rest on what is happening rather than on instinct.
Scenarios at decision
30%
Decision goes your way
Hold the coalition together and prepare implementation messaging.
25%
Delayed or amended
Most common in volatile or multi-venue decisions. Keep resources for a second round.
45%
Decision goes against you
Plan the response, the fallback ask and the next venue now, not after.
Signposts to watch
wk 4
Committee scheduling or amendments tabled
Early sign the timeline or venue is moving.
wk 8
Undecided members going public
Shows which way the undecided are breaking.
wk 12
Opposition coalition formalising
Tells you what the other side will spend and say.
wk 14
Media frame shifting to cost or risk
The frame that will carry into the decision.
Where to start
Artefact91 Situation Room
Your read rests on thin evidence. Replace instinct with tracked signals, scenario indicators and weekly decisions.
Indicative model based on your inputs and general political and issues dynamics. It is a projection, not a guarantee. Nothing is sent unless you choose to send it to us.
